Prior to the start of what looks to be a successful summer movie season, I made predictions on which movies would be profitable or not profitable. I used Adobe Social to track social mentions of movies and compare them in a historical mentions model of both profitable and not profitable movies. Up until May 29th 2015, that model was 24 for 24 in predicting profitability. That is until I learned to never doubt The Rock and the power of social media.
The Rock, his social media following, and a lot of curious Californians pushed San Andreas into profitability. It was previously trending below previously not profitable movies up until a few days to release. The buzz then sky rocketed and pushed it into the profitability realm. This shows how quickly an actor/actress can engage his/her core following.
With all but one of the movies I predicted released, let’s see how the Adobe Digital Index profitability scorecard is looking.
Movie Prediction Updates
San Andreas:
Prediction: Not profitable
Actual: Profitable
Domestic box office revenue: $184 million
Estimated production cost: $110 million
The Avengers:
Prediction: Profitable
Actual: Profitable
Domestic box office revenue: $457 million (Still in theatres)
Estimated production cost: $250 million
Aloha:
Prediction: Not profitable
Actual: Not Profitable
Domestic box office revenue: $21 million
Estimated production cost: $37 million
Minions:
Prediction: Profitable
Actual: Profitable
Domestic box office revenue: $287 million (Still in theatres)
Estimated production cost: $74 million
Ant Man:
Prediction: Profitable
Actual: Profitable
Domestic box office revenue: $132 million (Still in theatres)
Estimated production cost: $130 million
Jurassic World:
Prediction: Profitable
Actual: Profitable
Domestic box office revenue: $631 million
Estimated production cost: $150 million
Pitch Perfect 2:
Prediction: Profitable
Actual: Profitable
Domestic box office revenue: $183 million
Estimated production cost: $29 million
Mad Max Fury Road:
Prediction: Profitable
Actual: Profitable
Domestic box office revenue: $151.8 million
Estimated production cost: $150 million
Hot Pursuit:
Prediction: Not profitable
Actual: Not profitable
Domestic box office revenue: $34.5 million
Estimated production cost: $35 million
Hitman Agent 47: the buzz has picked up and some of its competition for that weekend have moved, but it still looks to be on the fringe of less profitable if at all.
It looks like going into summer next year, the social prediction model will stand at 33 for 34 in predicting movie profitability. Social media is the new frontier of marketing and if we can learn anything from San Andreas, it’s that activing your social audience can move your product from the not profitable line to profitable in a matter of days.
