This past weekend Jupiter Ascending and its $174 million production budget opened to less revenue than SpongeBob and its $74 million budget and American Sniper, which opened several weeks ago. How did a movie with big names like Channing Tatum and Mila Kunis fail to latch onto audiences? The answer lies in a movie prediction model that I created for Adobe Digital Index
This model, which is currently 22 for 22, incorporates historical social buzz of movies that were profitable and not profitable and when applied to buzz of to be released movies is able to show if it will be successful or not. These profitable movies show certain trends that can predict success 21-30 days prior to release. Back in May I told Hollywood Reporter that Jupiter Ascending would be one of my predicted flops of the Summer. The movie was pushed to January, probably in part because of the lack of buzz.
What is interesting is that even with an additional 6 months, this movie still was unable to link to audiences. Sometimes companies push movies to January to just die, but what if Village Roadshow Pictures, the production company, had pushed the movie to the Summer of 2015 and brought in the heavy social influences of Channing Tatum and Mila Kunis to further promote the film via more social/digital channels. Would it have been better received? Hard to tell, but one thing is for sure if you don’t have the social buzz……don’t expect to earn the revenue